Six things we’ve learned
The long-awaited release of Queensland’s Energy Roadmap marks a clear shift in the State’s energy strategy, moving away from a focus on renewable energy targets and emission reduction. The Energy Roadmap replaces the previous Government’s 2022 Energy and Jobs Plan, and instead prioritises:
- affordable energy – with a headline comment that Queensland households will avoid paying $1,035 extra in energy costs;
- reliable energy – delivering $1.6 billion Electricity Maintenance Guarantee to improve Queensland’s current energy assets; and
- sustainable energy – promoting a mix of fossil fuels and renewable energy with scope for private sector involvement.
Despite the Queensland Government backing net zero by 2050, the Energy Roadmap sends some mixed signals to the market and investors.
In this article we discuss some key takeaways and their impact on the resources and renewables sectors in Queensland.
Here are six key takeaways from the announcement:
- Coal stays for now – coal-fired power stations will keep running as long as economically and technically viable (at least until 2046 for some plants);
- No emission reduction targets –Energy (Renewable Transformation and Jobs) Act 2024 (Qld) to be repealed before the end of the year, removing emission reduction targets;
- Gas production to double – nearly 2.5 times the current level of gas-fired generation capacity (up to 8.3 GW with the current capacity sitting at approximately 3.5 GW);
- Renewable Energy Zones scrapped – to be replaced by smaller, regional ‘energy hubs’;
- Investment channelled through QIC – the Queensland Investment Corporation (QIC) will oversee major private investment in energy projects; and
- New rules coming – a new Code of Conduct for renewable energy developers and an Energy Amendment Bill to formalise the policy changes with a focus on community consultation.
The Energy Roadmap marks a change in tone and approach by the new Queensland Government. Instead of driving large-scale public renewable projects, the Government is now focusing on smaller, localised developments led by private investors.
Coal-fired power stations will continue operating as long as they remain economically and technically viable. While this approach supports energy reliability and leverages existing infrastructure, this may complicate Australia’s broader transition to a low-carbon energy system.
While the Crisafulli Government has maintained that it’s committed to net zero by 2050, there was no mention of climate change in the Energy Roadmap announcement nor any clear plan for how the target will be achieved. Abandoning renewable energy targets is in direct conflict to the recently announced Federal Government’s emission reduction targets of 62%-70% by 2035 sending mixed signals to investors.
The Energy Roadmap positions gas as a critical ‘transition fuel’, helping to balance the intermittent nature of renewables while meeting growing energy demand. It notes that Queensland will need to increase its gas generation capacity from 3.5 GW today to up to 8.3 GW by 2035 to support the growing integration of renewable energy.
Renewable Energy Zones (REZs) will be scrapped in favour of ‘Regional Energy Hubs’, and large pumped hydro projects will be scaled back to smaller, manageable developments. Investment will be channelled through QIC’s Investor Gateway, with private-led projects and strong community consultation encouraged. While this approach encourages local engagement and private sector participation, Queensland’s continued reliance on coal and planned expansion of gas generation may limit emissions reductions.
A Code of Conduct for renewable energy developers will be developed to promote responsible practices and set clear standards for industry behaviour. It will provide consolidated guidance and standards that developers of renewable energy infrastructure will be expected to meet when applying for a Generation Authority.
What This Means for Key Sectors
Renewables
The Energy Roadmap signals a considerably slower approach to the development of renewable energy projects in Queensland. The removal of REZs and the lack of new large-scale projects may make it harder to build confidence and attract clean energy investment into Queensland. Regional Energy Hubs will be driven by market demand and private sector investment, while reflecting community expectations. Their development aims to consider broader system needs, including resource availability, existing transmission infrastructure, and proximity to major demand centres, and will be supported by new legislation.
Winners: small pumped hydro, and certain wind projects.
Storage
Storage will play a growing role in balancing Queensland’s energy mix and supporting reliability as the State transitions. The Government has tasked QIC with leading coordinated assessments and investment partnerships for pumped hydro projects such as Borumba, Mt Rawdon, Big T and Capricornia, to aim for a consistent approach to project evaluation and delivery. To complement large-scale storage, a further $10 million will be invested in community batteries to help manage rooftop solar output, reduce peak demand pressure and seeks to improve grid efficiency.
Resources
Coal will continue to underpin Queensland’s electricity supply, operating for as long as it is needed and supported by the market, and maintained until it is no longer economically viable. In 2025, around 8 GW of coal-fired generation capacity, owned by both Government Owned Corporations (GOCs) and the private sector, supplies more than 60% of the State’s electricity. The Government has committed to running State-owned coal assets at least to their technical lives, with options to extend further depending on system needs, asset condition, and economic feasibility. Over the next five years, a $1.6 billion investment through the Electricity Maintenance Guarantee will maintain coal, hydro, and gas assets, ensuring reliability, stabilising the system, and providing certainty for operators, industry, and regional communities.
The Energy Roadmap outlines the Government’s continued support for growing a domestic critical minerals mining and processing sector. The North West Mineral Province, which holds significant potential for new projects in the critical minerals space, needs reliable and affordable energy to kick start development. The Energy Roadmap offers this in the form of a $200 million fund for joint QIC and private sector investment in the region and continued financial support for CopperString.
Gas
Gas has re-emerged as a critical technology for system reliability. The Government is backing several major projects through its State-owned generators, including CS Energy’s Brigalow Peaking Power Plant, Stanwell’s Lockyer Energy Project, and CleanCo’s proposed open-cycle turbine at Swanbank—together adding more than 700 MW of new capacity by the next decade. In addition, a Central Queensland Gas Power Tender, run through the QIC Investor Gateway, will seek private partnerships to deliver a further 400MW of gas generation in a region central to Queensland’s industrial and coal-fired base.
Private sector and GOCs
The Energy Roadmap places strong emphasis on collaboration between the private sector and GOCs to deliver the State’s future energy infrastructure. The newly established QIC Investor Gateway and $400 million Queensland Energy Investment Fund will be central to this effort—attracting private capital, matching investor interest with GOC portfolio needs, and supporting projects from development through to operation. Together, these initiatives aim to balance commercial outcomes with system reliability and ensure Queensland remains an attractive destination for clean energy investment despite the 2025 Roadmap’s renewed focus on fossil fuels.
Transmission
Transmission is keeping pace by focusing on strategic early works to maintain flexibility while ensuring new generation and storage can connect efficiently. Key initiatives include QIC’s CopperString project, which aims to unlock new generation in North and Northwest Queensland, the $200 million North West Energy Fund (referred to above) supporting local generation and storage solutions, and Powerlink’s Gladstone upgrades to maintain reliability as the region transitions. These projects are aiming to link transmission infrastructure to both regional development and broader system security.
Communities
At the centre of the Government’s approach towards new energy projects has been community support, something the mining sector has long put front and centre and showed a best practice approach to. Investors applying similar engagement approaches may benefit from this focus, but with renewable energy and net zero continuing to be a flash point in national politics, it is difficult to see how an investor will be able to navigate this new engagement process unless there are clear processes and rules about who and how stakeholders can object.
National outlook
Queensland’s pivot complicates the Federal Government’s broader energy transition ambitions. With one of the country’s largest and most energy-intensive economies leaning back toward fossil fuels, national emissions targets may become harder to meet. This increases pressure on the Federal Government to ensure consistency across State policies and to fill the gap left by Queensland in the national renewable rollout.
Conclusion
Moving forward, Queensland’s energy system needs more energy and storage capacity to balance supply and demand, with opportunities to catalyse new investment and economic activity. The Energy Roadmap puts in place a system to be followed for the next 5 years and beyond — prioritising reliability, regional jobs and cost control over rapid growth in renewables.
The Energy Roadmap provides clarity on the role of coal and gas in maintaining near-term reliability, while setting a framework for private investment in renewables and firming technologies such as batteries and pumped storage hydropower, as Queensland transitions toward a more renewable energy mix.
Although the Energy Roadmap is certainly not a roadblock to renewable energy development and shows strong support for the further development of a critical minerals mining and processing sector in Queensland, as is often the case the devil will be in the detail. The Code of Conduct and level of community consultation has the potential to delay projects further, while introducing significant approvals risk should the Queensland Government not support a project’s location. We will continue to monitor the progress of the Code of Conduct and will provide an update once it has been released for consultation.
The Energy Roadmap is welcome certainty to the sector, but the continued uncertainty generated by ongoing debates at all levels of politics over net zero, community and bio-diversity impact, food security and generally the role Government should play, will still likely cause some investors to think twice.
